On May 29 (UTC), crypto news outlet Cointelegraph reported a bullish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that the current market cycle’s peak could see prices surge an additional 100% to 200%, potentially reaching between $220,000 and $330,000. This projection is based on a long-term price model employing the Power Law, developed by Bitcoin analyst Sminston With.
With shared on X (formerly Twitter) a model combining the 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) with a Power Law trendline (R²=0.96). This model highlights that in previous cycles, Bitcoin has rallied 2 to 3 times above this trendline, implying a high probability of hitting the $220,000 to $330,000 range during the current cycle.
However, caution is warranted as significant sell-offs by long-term holders hint at possible corrections. Data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode reveals that roughly $4.2 billion worth of BTC has moved from holders with 1 to 5 years of ownership recently. Notably, the 3–5 year holding group accounted for over half of this amount, around $2.16 billion—marking the fifth-largest sell-off in this market cycle so far.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s price action continues a bullish pattern, establishing higher highs and higher lows since the $74,500 low. Although a pullback is currently unfolding around the $107,300 level, this zone is acting as a strong support area previously recognized as a resistance level, suggesting the upward trend may remain intact.
Meanwhile, anonymous analyst TXMC noted that Bitcoin has closed higher for seven consecutive weeks, nearing the longest winning streak since 2013. Historically, such prolonged rallies tend to be followed by a period of consolidation or correction, indicating that a short-term pause or retracement could be imminent.
In summary, while the consensus among many analysts is that Bitcoin’s cycle peak has not yet been reached, the interplay between short-term corrections and significant long-term holder selling could lead to heightened volatility. Investors are advised to exercise caution and monitor market signals closely as the 2025 cycle unfolds.